The rate picture is holding steady, and the demand numbers just hit a milestone worth understanding. Freddie Mac's October 29 survey keeps the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24%, while Redfin's tracker shows pending sales at the lowest level in its records, a fresh sign of how payment pressure is reshaping the market. I verified everything below against the published reports this week. One note up front: market reports use different windows and methods, so I keep to the freshest published figures and tell you which source each number comes from.
Rates hold at 7.24%, with the next survey Thursday
Freddie Mac's October 29 survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24%, down from 7.32% a week earlier and the second consecutive decline after seven straight weekly increases. A year ago the same survey read 6.17%, so rates are still running more than a point above where they sat twelve months back, yet the direction has clearly turned. The next survey publishes Thursday, November 5, and that is the number to watch for anyone timing a purchase. Daily rate trackers moved into the 7.15% to 7.27% range for Monday, November 2, the low end of the recent band, though those are daily quotes rather than the weekly survey.
Pending sales hit a record low
Redfin's report, published Thursday, October 29, put the national median sale price at $389,601 for the four weeks ending October 25, down 0.1% from a year earlier, the first annual decline in more than three years. The bigger headline is underneath: pending sales ran at 276,352, down 15.9% from a year earlier and 1.8% week over week, the lowest level in Redfin's records, which go back to 2021, and pending sales fell in all 50 of the largest U.S. metros for a third straight week. The median monthly mortgage payment sits near $2,786, up 10.7%, and that is the force behind the slowdown. Months of supply held near 4.4 in Redfin's prior weekly read, with active listings up about 2.2% from a year earlier.
Closer to home: our numbers keep climbing
Before the national headline lands wrong, remember it is a signal, not a slide, and our market still reads differently. The Chicago metro's median sale price was up 5.2% year over year in the four weeks ending October 11, and Redfin's three-month median for the city runs near $426,000, up about 9.3%, with the market rated somewhat competitive. Illinois' official September figures remain the freshest state read: 11,104 homes sold, down 3.3% from a year earlier, a statewide median of $324,000, up 7.8%, and 23,841 homes for sale, down 2.7%. Indiana's September report holds as the freshest official month across the line: 7,203 closed sales, down 4%, a median sale price of $278,000, up 3%, and inventory that has now grown for 31 straight weeks, with 7,318 homes going under contract in September, down 10%. The Indiana Association of REALTORS has not yet published its October report; it typically lands in November, and an October 26 broker update citing the September data noted inventory running about 11% higher year over year with a median 25 days to contract.
What this means for buyers
A pending-sales record low is a buyer signal worth reading twice. Fewer signed contracts means fewer competing offers, more time to choose and more room to negotiate in most towns, and Indiana's 31 weeks of inventory growth keeps widening the selection. Yet prices in our region are still climbing, so the winning strategy is unchanged: get pre-approved, run your real payment math and be ready to act when the right home appears, especially in the pockets that still sell in two to four weeks.
What this means for sellers
For sellers, the payment pressure is real, yet our values have not cracked: the Illinois statewide median is up 7.8% and the Chicago metro is up more than 5%. What has changed is buyer discipline, and that makes your opening price and your condition your two most powerful tools. The first two weeks on market still decide most of your outcome, and in Indiana, where buyers have more options, honest pricing matters even more.
Dates to circle
Circle Thursday, November 5 for Freddie Mac's next rate survey, and Thursday, November 12, when the National Association of REALTORS releases its October existing-home sales report. Indiana's October state report and the region's county and MLS numbers typically follow in the first half of November, and I will have them explained here as soon as they land.
One more thing
I am licensed in both Illinois and Indiana, so I can compare the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana in a single conversation, property taxes included. If you want to know what today's rate means for your payment, what your home is worth, or whether this is your moment, I would love to run the numbers with you. Keep up with the town-by-town picture on my market report, call me at (708) 252-1490, or schedule a call any time. You Can With Joanne!™