Here is where things stand as we move through the first full week of October, and the honest headline is that rates are holding near their highest level in nearly three years. Freddie Mac's most recent survey, released Thursday, October 1, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week earlier and the sixth straight weekly increase. Daily rate trackers since then have held near 7.40%, which tells you the market has not budged off that high ground. And the September jobs report, released Friday, October 2, was softer than expected yet did not push mortgage rates down. Let me walk through what that means.
The September jobs report: soft, yet rates did not fall
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September, well below the roughly 84,000 to 90,000 economists expected, and down from a revised 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.1% to $37.81. On its face, a softer jobs market usually takes pressure off rates. Yet here is the twist: the 10-year Treasury still closed a few basis points higher on the day, and daily 30-year mortgage rates jumped roughly 20 basis points on October 2 and stayed near three-year highs. The market is reading the data through the lens of stubborn inflation and heavy Treasury supply, so a soft jobs number has not been enough to move mortgage rates down yet.
The national housing picture
The most recent published existing-home sales report is still for August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, with inventory at a 4.9-month supply and the national median price at $429,100, up 1.6% year over year. The September report from the National Association of REALTORS is due Tuesday, October 13, and it will be the first real look at how the fall market opened. That is the number to watch.
What this means for sellers
At a daily rate near 7.40%, buyers feel the monthly payment before they feel the house, so your opening price is your most powerful tool. In Lake County, Indiana, where supply is still thin, a sharp price on a well-presented home still draws real traffic. In the South Suburbs, where inventory keeps building, overpricing today carries more risk than it did in the spring. The buyers who are out there are serious: they are pre-approved and ready to act on the right home at the right number.
What this means for buyers
Here is the honest glass-half-full version: your choices are better than they have been in years. More resale inventory means more negotiating room in most of the towns I serve, and a rate near 7.40% makes every seller aware that price matters, which is good news for the buyer who comes prepared. The rate is real, and nobody can tell you with certainty where it goes next, yet waiting has its own cost: rent keeps going out, and each month you wait is a month you are not building equity. Get pre-approved, know your reliable payment and be ready to act, because the well-priced homes still do not linger.
The town-by-town read
For the freshest verified numbers in each community, from Frankfort and Orland Park to Munster and Crown Point, head to my market report page, which I keep updated with the most recent publicly available data. Every market is local, and the measure and window can move the story in a given town, so the zip-level read is the one that matters for your situation.
One more thing
I am licensed in both Illinois and Indiana, so I can compare the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana in a single conversation, property taxes included. If you want to know what today's rate means for your payment, what your home is worth, or whether this is your moment, I would love to run the numbers with you. Call me at (708) 252-1490 or schedule a call any time. You Can With Joanne!™