The first full measure of September demand is in, and it is the clearest sign yet that payment pressure is reshaping who moves. The National Association of REALTORS released its September pending home sales report on Tuesday, October 20, and mortgage rates, for now, have stopped climbing. Here is what I verified this week and what it means for buyers and sellers in the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana. One note up front: market reports use different windows and methods, so I keep to the freshest published figures and tell you which source each number comes from.
September pending sales slid in every region
NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for September came in at 66.0, down 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, and every region posted both a monthly and an annual decline. The Midwest fell 6.5% for the month and 8.7% year over year, the mildest annual decline of the four regions; the Northeast was down 4.2% for the month and 9.4% year over year, the South down 8.2% and 12.0%, and the West down 9.2% and 15.0%. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, tied the slide to higher mortgage rates and the uncertainty created by energy-price-driven inflation. A pending sale is a signed contract that has not yet closed, so this report is the earliest look we get at where demand is heading.
Rates hold at 7.32%, with the next survey Thursday
Freddie Mac's October 22 survey kept the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32%, unchanged from the week before, with the 15-year at 6.68%. That reading followed the first decline after seven straight weekly increases, and this week it held. The next Freddie Mac survey publishes Thursday, October 29, and with daily rate trackers still running in the mid-7s, that is the number to watch for anyone timing a purchase.
Redfin's tracker: pending sales at a new low, prices still steady
Redfin's weekly update, published October 22, reports that its measure of pending sales sank to a new low in the four weeks ending October 18, while the national median sale price held at $390,614, up just 0.2% from a year earlier. Months of supply sat at 4.4, up from 4.0 a year ago, and new listings were down 1.4% week over week. A week earlier, Redfin reported that U.S. list prices fell for the first time since March. Closer to home, the Chicago metro's median sale price was up 5.2% year over year in the four weeks ending October 11, one of the bigger increases among large metros, so prices here are holding even as the national pace flattens.
Illinois and Indiana: the freshest verified reads
On the Illinois side, Illinois REALTORS' September figures had not surfaced in the sources I track at the time of writing, so August remains the latest fully verified official month: 12,103 homes sold, down 4.6% from a year earlier, a statewide median price of $330,000, up 4.8%, and 22,531 homes for sale. Redfin's separate September read for the state put the median sale price at $323,321, up 7.1% year over year, with about 11,219 homes sold. Different sources, different windows, yet both point the same direction: prices climbing gently, inventory still building.
On the Indiana side, the Indiana Association of REALTORS' September report shows 7,203 closed sales, down 4% from a year earlier, with a statewide median sale price of $278,000, up 3%, and new pending sales down 10%; inventory has now grown for 31 straight weeks. The Greater Northwest Indiana MLS reported 2,155 September closed sales, down about 10.6%, with a median sales price of $360,000 and a median 39 days on market. Fresh county data arrived this week: Lake County's September median sale price came in near $289,352, up about 3.1% from a year earlier, with homes selling in roughly 25 to 32 days, and Porter County holds near $343,000, down about 1.6%, with about 31 days on market and roughly 2.1 months of supply.
What this means for buyers
The pending-sales slide is a buyer signal worth reading twice. Fewer signed contracts means fewer competing offers, more time to choose and more room to negotiate in most towns, yet prices are not falling broadly: Illinois medians rose 7.1% in Redfin's September read, and the Chicago metro is still up more than 5%. The Midwest's 8.7% annual pending decline is the mildest in the country, a reminder that demand here is cooling more gently than in the South or West. The winning strategy is unchanged: get pre-approved, know your reliable payment and be ready to act when the right home appears, especially in the pockets that still sell in two to four weeks.
What this means for sellers
Signed contracts are running thinner, and that changes the math for pricing a home. Your opening price and your condition are your two most powerful tools: honest pricing from day one, updated photos and a move-in-ready feel do more in this market than any single upgrade. Homes that are priced and presented well are still selling, yet the margin for overpricing has clearly thinned, and the first two weeks on market remain the ones that matter most.
One more thing
I am licensed in both Illinois and Indiana, so I can compare the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana in a single conversation, property taxes included. For the town-by-town picture, my market report keeps the freshest published reads for Frankfort, Orland Park, Munster, Crown Point and every community I serve. If you want to know what today's rate means for your payment, what your home is worth, or whether this is your moment, I would love to run the numbers with you. Call me at (708) 252-1490 or schedule a call any time. You Can With Joanne!™