The rate picture just turned for the second week in a row, and it is the clearest signal yet that the long climb is over: Freddie Mac's October 29 survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24%, down from 7.32% a week earlier and the second consecutive decline after seven straight weekly increases. A year ago the same survey read 6.17%, so rates are still running more than a full point above where they sat twelve months back, yet the direction has finally changed. One note up front: market reports use different windows and methods, so I keep to the freshest published figures and tell you which source each number comes from.
The rate path: seven weeks up, two weeks down
To see where we are, it helps to see how we got here. The 30-year averaged 7.03% on September 24, climbed to 7.28% on October 1, 7.40% on October 8, held at 7.40% on October 15, eased to 7.32% on October 22 and now reads 7.24% on the October 29 survey. Two straight declines after that run of increases means the payment math is moving in buyers' favor for the first time in months, gently and still slowly. Nobody knows where rates go from here, yet the pause that became a decline is worth planning around.
Chicago's September report: prices up, inventory tighter
The Illinois REALTORS and ShowingTime September report for the nine-county Chicago metro puts the median sale price near $385,000, up about 6.9% from a year earlier, with a median 23 days on market, down 8%. Inventory ran near 14,837 homes, down about 8.4% from a year ago, which is the opposite of the national build-up: the Chicago area is genuinely tighter than it was last September, and that is why our prices keep climbing even as the national median just dipped.
Illinois and Indiana: the latest published months
Illinois REALTORS' official September figures hold as the freshest state read: 11,104 homes sold, down 3.3% from a year earlier, a statewide median price of $324,000, up 7.8%, and 23,841 homes for sale, down 2.7% from a year ago. Year to date, the median is up 5.5% while sales run 0.8% lower.
Indiana tells the mirror story. The Indiana Association of REALTORS' September report shows 7,203 closed sales, down 4%, a median sale price of $278,000, up 3%, and inventory that has now grown for 31 straight weeks, with average daily listings near 7,205 in early October and homes taking a median 25 days to go under contract. RealMLS's September report for Greater Northwest Indiana puts the median 39 days on market, up about 14.7% from August yet down about 7.1% from a year earlier. And Redfin's August read for Lake County, the most recent county figure published, shows a median sale price near $296,009, up about 3.9% year over year, with pending sales down about 29% and new listings down about 25%. More choices, a pause in fresh listings, prices still holding: that is the Northwest Indiana story right now.
What this means for buyers
Two straight weekly declines take a little pressure off the payment math, yet at 7.24% the monthly cost still comes first, so the strategy is unchanged: get pre-approved, know your reliable payment and be ready to act when the right home appears. In the Chicago area, tighter inventory means the right homes still move, so the towns that reward patience are largely across the state line in Indiana, where inventory has grown for 31 straight weeks and there is more room to choose and negotiate.
What this means for sellers
If you are selling, the Illinois numbers are your headline: the official statewide median is up 7.8% year over year, and the Chicago metro median is up about 6.9%, so values in our market have not cracked even as the national number dips. What has changed is buyer discipline, and that makes your opening price and your condition your two most powerful tools. The first two weeks on market still decide most of your outcome, and in Indiana, where buyers have more options, honest pricing matters even more.
Dates to circle
The next big number lands Thursday, November 12, when the National Association of REALTORS releases its October existing-home sales report, and Freddie Mac's rate survey publishes every Thursday. October's county and MLS reports for our region typically follow in the first half of November, and I will have them explained here as soon as they land.
One more thing
I am licensed in both Illinois and Indiana, so I can compare the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana in a single conversation, property taxes included. If you want to know what today's rate means for your payment, what your home is worth, or whether this is your moment, I would love to run the numbers with you. Keep up with the town-by-town picture on my market report, call me at (708) 252-1490, or schedule a call any time. You Can With Joanne!™