After seven straight weekly climbs, the rate picture has finally turned, and the report season that follows is about to give us the clearest read of the fall. Freddie Mac's October 29 survey held the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% for a second week, down from 7.32%, and daily rate trackers have been running near the 7% mark as November opens. One note up front: market reports use different windows and methods, so the figures below reflect the most recent available published reads, and the October county and state reports for our region are just beginning to land.
Rates: a second straight decline, and a survey landing this week
The easing started in late October: after climbing from 7.03% on September 24 to 7.28% on October 1, 7.40% on October 8 and October 15, and 7.32% on October 22, the survey fell to 7.24% on October 29, a second consecutive weekly decline that ended a seven-week climb. A year ago the same survey read 6.17%, so rates still sit more than a point above where they were twelve months back. The next official survey lands Thursday, November 5, and on that morning lender-based trackers were already showing daily averages in the 7.0% to 7.2% range, with several hovering near 7.1%. Those are not the official number, yet they are directionally the first real relief we have seen in two months, and buyers pricing a home this week are working with slightly easier payment math than they were in mid-October.
The national picture, and the October report to watch
The National Association of REALTORS' September report, released October 13, showed existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, up 1.5% from August yet down 2.2% from a year earlier, with the national median price at $417,500, up 1.3% year over year. Inventory stood at 1.60 million homes, up 4.6% from a year earlier, about a 4.8-month supply. August and September were the two slowest months of the year nationally, which tells you buyers have been waiting more than buying. The October report, due Thursday, November 12, will be the first test of whether the late-October rate drop pulls more buyers off the sidelines.
Pending sales, which lead closings by a month or two, have been the soft spot: September's national pending activity ran at the lowest level in records, falling in every major metro, a figure I covered in the last market check.
Illinois and the South Suburbs
Illinois REALTORS published September's official figures in mid-October: 11,104 homes sold, down 3.3% from a year earlier, a statewide median price of $324,000, up 7.8%, and 23,841 homes for sale, down 2.7% from a year ago. The Chicago Association of REALTORS' September snapshot for the city shows 1,681 closed sales versus 1,812 a year earlier, down about 7%, a reminder that the slowdown is real even where prices keep climbing. For context on the October city report expected later this month, last October the city recorded 1,804 sales at a $370,000 median with 54 median days on market, so that is the bar the new number will be measured against.
Indiana and Northwest Indiana
Indiana's September statewide report from the Indiana Association of REALTORS shows 7,203 closed sales, down 4% from a year earlier, with a median sale price of $278,000, up 3%, and new pending sales down about 10% as inventory grew for a 31st straight week. A late-October industry read keeps the state median near $278,000 with inventory up about 11% from a year earlier, and homes taking a median roughly 25 days to go under contract. Closer to us, RealMLS's September report for Greater Northwest Indiana showed 2,155 closed sales, down about 10.6% from a year earlier, with a median sales price of $360,000 and a median 39 days on market. Indiana's October statewide report is expected in the middle of the month, and I will break it down here when it lands.
What this means for buyers
A two-week rate decline is a real signal even when the change is modest. If you got pre-approved back in October, this is the week to re-run your numbers: the same home carries a slightly smaller payment, and sellers are still offering concessions in a meaningful share of sales. Waiting for a full point of relief has a cost too, since prices are up from a year ago in nearly every town I serve and rent never builds equity. Get pre-approved, keep a close eye on the November 5 and November 12 releases, and be ready to move when the right home appears.
What this means for sellers
The national pace is near its slowest of the year, yet the buyers who are out there are serious, and the best-prepared homes still move. Your opening price and your condition are your most powerful tools, because a payment-sensitive buyer notices both on the very first tour. Indiana inventory keeps building yet stays tight in the best towns, so honest pricing from day one is what separates a quick sale from a listing that lingers into January.
One more thing
I am licensed in both Illinois and Indiana, so I can compare the South Suburbs and Northwest Indiana in a single conversation, property taxes included. If you want to know what today's rate means for your payment, what your home is worth, or whether this is your moment, I would love to run the numbers with you. You can also keep up with the latest numbers on my market report. Call me at (708) 252-1490 or schedule a call any time. You Can With Joanne!™